Coffee Shop Financial Model — Bed-Stuy, Brooklyn

The Math Behind the Brew

by Riya Goel · Operating & startup financial model for a 1,200 sq ft Bed-Stuy cafe.

$504K

Cash to Open

$548K

Yr 1 Revenue

$687K

Yr 2 Revenue

Mo 11

EBITDA +ve

70%

Prime Cost

How to use this model

→ Use the sidebar (or arrow keys) to navigate between sheets
→ Assumptions tab shows every input — in the real spreadsheet, blue cells are editable
→ Revenue Build shows the 24-month ramp from opening to stabilized
→ P&L shows monthly costs, margins, and when you break even
→ Sensitivity shows what happens when traffic or rent changes
→ Calculator lets you plug in your own numbers and see results instantly

What this model tells you

The honest math

At 220 transactions/day and $8.50 avg ticket, EBITDA is barely positive in Year 2. This is a tight model. You need volume OR higher tickets to make real money.

The real risk

~30% of coffee shops close in year 1. The #1 cause is undercapitalization. This model budgets $168K in working capital specifically for the ramp period cash burn.

Cover

Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brooklyn · ~1,200 sq ft second-generation retail · 24-month lease

Why This Location & Structure

Prime Williamsburg/DUMBO retail runs $100-200+/sq ft and breaks the 10-15% rent-to-revenue rule for a new cafe. Bed-Stuy corridor offers $50-68/sf with strong foot traffic and growing specialty coffee demand.

A 12-24 month term is a pop-up/short-term deal, not a standard 5-10 yr retail lease. This changes the capital structure, the landlord relationship, and the exit strategy. Prove concept → build brand → negotiate long-term or relocate with leverage.

Headline Results (Base Case)

Total cash to open (incl. working-capital reserve)	$504,057
Owner equity required	$504,057
Stabilized annual revenue (run-rate)	$673,200
Year 1 revenue (ramp year)	$548,097
Year 2 revenue	$687,225
Stabilized EBITDA margin (pre owner comp)	0.6%
Year 2 EBITDA (pre owner comp)	$4,253
Prime cost % (COGS + labor) — target < 65%	70.0%
Month EBITDA turns positive	11
Month cumulative cash flow turns positive	Does not occur in 24 mo

Want to run your own numbers?

Head to the 🧮 Calculator tab to plug in your own sq ft, rent, traffic, and costs. Results update instantly.

Assumptions

Blue = input · Black = formula · All figures drive from here.

Scenario Swing Drivers

Driver	Base	Downside	Upside	Note
Transactions/day (stabilized)	220	170	260	Indie Brooklyn cafe benchmark 180-260/day
Average ticket ($)	$8.50	$7.75	$9.25	NYC specialty: latte $5.5-6.5, drip $4, +pastry
Base rent ($/sf/yr)	$60	$68	$54	Bed-Stuy corridor $50-75
COGS multiplier	1.00x	1.08x	0.95x	Stress on input/dairy/coffee prices

Space & Lease

Square footage	1,200	Cafe-scale (Bklyn avg ~2,360 sf)
Seats	22	Counter-service + limited seating
Lease term (months)	24	Short-term / pop-up strategy
Rent escalation (%/yr)	3%
Security deposit (months)	4	Short leases: 3-6 mo + personal guarantee
Free rent at start (months)	1	Build-out concession
Base monthly rent	$6,000

Revenue Drivers

Operating days/year	360	Closed ~5 holidays; 7-day operation
Beverage % of sales	65%
Food/pastry % of sales	25%
Retail (beans/merch) %	10%
Stabilized annual revenue	$673,200	= txns × ticket × days

Cost of Goods Sold

Beverage COGS (% of bev sales)	22%	Espresso/milk/syrup
Food COGS (% of food sales)	36%	Wholesale par-baked pastry
Retail COGS (% of retail)	52%	Bagged beans / merch
Packaging & disposables	5%	Cups, lids, bags (to-go heavy)
Blended product COGS	28.5%
All-in COGS (incl packaging)	33.5%

Labor (NYC 2026)

Barista hours/week (stabilized)	230	Owner works floor ~40 hr/wk (draw, not here)
Blended hourly wage	$18.00	NYC min $17; $18 to attract
Labor staffing floor	75%	Min even in slow months
Payroll burden %	14%	FICA + UI + WC + paid sick
Owner draw ($/yr)	$60,000	Below EBITDA line
Annual barista cost (burdened)	$245,419

Operating Expenses

Utilities (stabilized)	$2,000/mo	Espresso, refrigeration, HVAC
Insurance (GL + WC + property)	$14,000/yr	Required for DOHMH permit
Card processing	2.7%	92% card share
POS / software	$300/mo	Toast / Square
Repairs & maintenance	$800/mo
Waste / pest / cleaning	$750/mo	Private carter (NYC)
Marketing (% of sales)	4%
Admin / legal / accounting	$1,400/mo
Misc contingency	$500/mo

Revenue Build — 24-Month Ramp

Ramp % is editable in the spreadsheet. Stabilized = 220 txns/day × $8.50 × 30 days = $56,100/mo.

Mo	Ramp	Txns/day	Total Txns	Revenue	Bev	Food	Retail
1	45%	99	2,970	$25,245	$16,409	$6,311	$2,525
2	58%	128	3,828	$32,538	$21,150	$8,135	$3,254
3	68%	150	4,488	$38,148	$24,796	$9,537	$3,815
4	75%	165	4,950	$42,075	$27,349	$10,519	$4,208
5	80%	176	5,280	$44,880	$29,172	$11,220	$4,488
6	84%	185	5,544	$47,124	$30,631	$11,781	$4,712
7	88%	194	5,808	$49,368	$32,089	$12,342	$4,937
8	91%	200	6,006	$51,051	$33,183	$12,763	$5,105
9	94%	207	6,204	$52,734	$34,277	$13,184	$5,273
10	96%	211	6,336	$53,856	$35,006	$13,464	$5,386
11	98%	216	6,468	$54,978	$35,736	$13,745	$5,498
12	100%	220	6,600	$56,100	$36,465	$14,025	$5,610
13	97%	213	6,402	$54,417	$35,371	$13,604	$5,442
18	102%	224	6,732	$57,222	$37,194	$14,306	$5,722
24	106%	233	6,996	$59,466	$38,653	$14,867	$5,947

P&L — Monthly (24 months)

EBITDA is pre owner-comp. All formulas driven from Assumptions.

Selected Months

Line	Mo 1	Mo 6	Mo 11	Mo 12	Mo 18	Mo 24
Revenue	$25,245	$47,124	$54,978	$56,100	$57,222	$59,466
COGS	$8,457	$15,787	$18,418	$18,794	$19,169	$19,921
Gross Profit	$16,788	$31,337	$36,560	$37,307	$38,053	$39,545
Labor	$15,339	$17,179	$20,043	$20,452	$20,861	$21,679
Labor %	60.8%	36.5%	36.5%	36.5%	36.5%	36.5%
Rent	$0	$6,000	$6,000	$6,000	$6,180	$6,180
Utilities	$1,400	$1,680	$1,960	$2,000	$2,040	$2,120
EBITDA	-$7,878	-$1,462	$637	$803	$193	$690

Month 1 has $0 rent (free rent concession). Labor % is high early due to staffing floor (75% of stabilized hours even at 45% volume).

Startup & Funding

One-time cash from conception to opening day.

Use of Cash	$	Note
Leasehold build-out ($90/sf)	$108,000	Light 2nd-gen food space
Architecture / MEP / permits	$18,000	DOB filings, drawings
Equipment	$72,000	Espresso machine $18-25k + grinders + cold + filtration
FF&E (millwork, seating, signage)	$38,000
Smallwares	$8,000
Initial inventory	$10,000
Licenses & permits	$4,000	DOHMH $280 + Food Protection + DBA
Legal / entity / lease review	$6,000
Branding / web / menu	$10,000
Pre-opening marketing	$10,000
Pre-opening labor & training	$12,000	Staff ~3 wks pre-open
Security deposit (refundable)	$24,000	4 months × $6,000
Contingency (15% hard costs)	$33,900
Working-capital reserve	$168,000	Ramp cash hole + $25K buffer
TOTAL CASH TO OPEN	$504,057

100% owner equity (base case). Short lease impedes SBA. Depreciable base $226K over 24 months.

Annual Summary & KPIs

Year 1 = months 1-12 (ramp). Year 2 = months 13-24.

	Year 1	Year 2	Run-Rate
Revenue	$548,097	$687,225	$713,592
Total COGS	$183,613	$230,220	$239,053
Gross Profit	$364,485	$457,005	$474,539
Gross Margin	66.5%	66.5%	66.5%
Total Labor	$210,856	$250,532	$260,144
Labor %	38.5%	36.5%	36.5%
Prime Cost	$394,468	$480,752	$499,198
Prime Cost %	72.0%	70.0%	70.0%
Operating Expenses	$180,859	$202,220	$204,869
EBITDA (pre owner comp)	-$27,230	$4,253	$9,525
EBITDA Margin	-5.0%	0.6%	1.3%
Owner Draw	$60,000	$60,000	$60,000
Cash Flow after Draw	-$87,230	-$55,747	-$50,475

Unit Economics (Year 2)

Revenue per sq ft	$573	Target $400-700/sf
Seller's Discretionary Earnings (SDE)	$64,253	EBITDA + owner comp
SDE / total cash invested	12.7%	Owner all-in return proxy
Peak cash funded during ramp	$143K	Max cumulative hole
Monthly breakeven revenue	$54,611	Cover monthly fixed costs
Stabilized revenue/day	$1,870

Sensitivity Analysis

Stabilized annual EBITDA (pre owner comp). Profitable Loss

Transactions/day × Average Ticket → Annual EBITDA

Txns\Ticket	$7.00	$7.75	$8.50	$9.25	$10.00
150	-$174K	-$149K	-$125K	-$101K	-$76K
185	-$121K	-$91K	-$61K	-$31K	-$1K
220 ★	-$68K	-$32K	$3.6K	$39K	$75K
255	-$15K	$27K	$68K	$109K	$151K
290	$38K	$85K	$132K	$179K	$226K

Rent ($/sf) × Weekly Barista Hours → Annual EBITDA

Rent\Hrs/wk	180	205	230	255	280
$48	$71K	$45K	$18K	-$9K	-$35K
$54	$64K	$37K	$11K	-$16K	-$43K
$60 ★	$57K	$30K	$3.6K	-$23K	-$50K
$68	$47K	$21K	-$6K	-$33K	-$59K
$76	$38K	$11K	-$16K	-$42K	-$69K

★ = Base case row highlighted.

Sources & References

Key inputs verified June 2026.

Brooklyn retail rent ~$56/sf — CommercialCafe / CommercialSearch, 2026
Coffee retail $40-80/sf; rent target 10-15% of revenue — My Coffee Explorer 2026
NYC build-out $200-500/sf raw; 2nd-gen cheaper — All American Construction Group
Coffee build-out $75-150/sf; equip $30-60k — Restroworks 2026
DOHMH Food Service permit $280 — NYC Business Portal
NYC min wage $17.00/hr (1/1/2026) — NY State DOL
Indie cafes (<30 locations) not "fast food" — NY Fast Food Worker Fact Sheet
Pending Int. 757: $30/hr by 2030 — Littler, Mar 2026 (not enacted)
Stabilized indie cafe ~200 txns/day @ $6.50 — My Coffee Explorer 2026
~30% close yr 1; undercapitalization #1 cause — Restroworks 2026

Figures are planning estimates. Verify current rents, permit fees and wage law before signing.

☕ Your Numbers

Plug in your scenario. Results update instantly.

Space & Rent

Square footage

Rent ($/sf/year)

Lease term (months)

Revenue Drivers

Transactions/day

Average ticket ($)

Operating days/year

Startup Costs

Build-out ($/sf)

Equipment ($)

FF&E ($)

Labor

Barista hours/week

Hourly wage ($)

# Employees (est.)

Results

Annual Revenue

$673,200

Monthly Rent

$6,000

Annual Labor

$245,419

Total Startup

$504,057

Prime Cost %

70.0%

Revenue/sf

$561

Est. EBITDA

$4,253

Breakeven Mo

~11